It won’t surprise you to hear that those of us who write for a living grow weary of the year-end pontification routine. I mean, here we all are, like you, scrambling to finish out the year and you expect us to be all profound or something. We have to come up with some gripping list in order to be worthy of attention. Heck, I haven’t figured out my own New Year’s resolution yet and I have less than 18 hours to do so. Plus, it looks like I have to shovel. Again.

So, I’ve been procrastinating (read organizing my files) for the past half hour or so trying to figure out how to focus my last few statements of the year 2008. I could make up some top 10 list very easily given all the different things I write about regularly, but there are three themes that keep bouncing around in my brain insisting on expression. So, why not keep it simple? I’m sure that you and I both would appreciate a least some simplicity in our lives.

So, here is my special year-begin 2009 list. (I prefer beginnings to endings, don’t you? Sort of like fresh-fallen snow vs. the black slushy stuff that has been kicked up off the road.) With apologies to Dr. Seuss, I’ll call these my Three Themes About Which to Scheme.

Green Means Green
OK, here she goes again with that tree-hugger stuff. I can see you making that icky face. But, I told you so, didn’t I? Granted, for the past year, I’ve only been able to back up my insistence that Green IT was HUGE with my very unscientific gut instinct. Fortunately, both IDC and Forrester Research recently have come to my rescue, along with AFCOM, an association of data center professionals. All three of these organizations have released statistics and survey results that point to a growing interest in green technology projects not just IN SPITE of the flagging economic climate but in many ways BECAUSE of it.

More than half the respondents to Forrester’s regular surveys about green issues report that they are either acting on or writing up a green IT plan, up from 45 percent six months ago. (Forrester’s polling about green topics covers more than 1,500 IT executives at more than 1,000 companies. They’re a mixture of enterprise and midsize accounts.)

Here’s the big one, folks: Slightly more than half the Forrester survey respondents said the economy would have no impact on their plans. In fact, twice as many said they would accelerate their efforts as those who said they would put the brakes on green IT. (10 percent vs. 5 percent) May not seem like big numbers, but definitely a big thumbs-up for green IT messaging and its very real tie to cost-reduction efforts. Approximately 38 percent predicted they would maintain their current project pace for green IT.

And here’s an even bigger one for IT solution providers: 59 percent of the IT executives polled by Forrester now include green considerations such as materials, operational features and disposal policies when buying new IT products. That compares with just 25 percent in April 2007. If you dig a little deeper, approximately 66 percent of the survey respondents consider such criteria “somewhat important” while 31 percent perceive them as “very important” in purchasing decisions.

Here’s a link to the Forrester report.

IDC Industry Insights has a separate study out that queried than 350 North American companies about their sustainability initiatives and increased budget support for green technology. That study reports that about 47 percent of the respondents across all industries plan to buy new applications to support corporate green projects, while another 39 percent are thinking about contracting an outside expert to help with the IT part.

The AFCOM membership study that I mentioned reports that 78 percent of data center managers expect their 2009 IT budget for data centers to include an increase in green initiatives. Power consumption is a factor.

If you believe that your own focus on small businesses makes you immune to all this, there are some great statistics that I’m analyzing from Microsoft that say this isn’t so. With this segment, in particular, eliminating as much paper as possible is a big deal.

Think OpEx
I’ve been writing about the coming of managed services and software as a service for many, many years now. But suddenly, there is a real impetus for companies to adopt both concepts, which fall under the bigger Cloud Computing mantra that will be on many columnists’ lists this year. It’s the credit crunch.

I reported in my Tech Target blog last week that even though many IT spending predictions are full of woe and wailing, anecdotal evidence suggests that there’s still money to be had. What ISN’T to be had is credit or the cash flow to pay for these things. I just heard from ANOTHER solution provider yesterday about the problems he had collecting on a project because of his customers’ own issues. This, unfortunately, will continue. But in a way, it’s a great dialogue opener for approaches to technology deployment that are paid for over time. The solution providers that will make it through this period without being burned by one of their customers are the one that structure these deals in such a way to reduce their own risk (perhaps by arranging for leasing) and at the same time make it easier for their customers to spread out the costs over a monthly or quarterly basis.

The current economy could be the best proof point we’ll ever get for the concept of IT as a service.

Mobile Thin is In
Last, but certainly not least, the client hardware world will be turned on its head this year. The adoption of server virtualization has prompted more companies to examine the possibilities of desktop virtualization, not only because of the security and management efficiencies that it provides, but because the lifecycle for thin clients is much longer (at least two years) than for desktops. Yes, we’re back to the green thing again.

Now, the mobile world is following suit, mainly due to the increasingly pervasive nature of wireless connectivity options. Expect the “netbook” category to creep into mainstream business usage during 2009. Yes, it’s mainly a consumer phenonemon now, but the price is right (around $500 per device), the management message resonates and the fact that more applications are available as a service is another supporting factor.

Every major hardware vendor is all over this category, including Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Lenovo and some scrappy contenders including Acer, ASUS and, perhaps, Apple should not be overlooked.

Anyway you look at it, these will be the three big defining themes of 2009. You could separate out hot technology movements such as server virtualization, of course, but if you think about it, server virtualization really is intrinsic to all three of themes I’ve mentioned. Best to consider individual technologies and products in the context of those concepts and move forward from there.

Looking ahead with optimism and hope. Thanks to all of you who have supported my transition over the past year. May 2009 bring peace and prosperity.

– Heather

Earlier this week I interviewed a former Novell executive whose new company is headquartered in one of the old Digital Equipment buildings up in Massachusetts, a facility itself created for an entirely different (now obsolete) industry.

That interview has nothing to do with this column really but, suddenly, I had the hook for the entry I’ve been mulling for the past few weeks about software as a service (SaaS) and its implications for the high-tech channel. Because, to me, SaaS is a game-changing approach to computing that will leave many legacy software companies drowning in its wake—much like DEC was pretty much overthrown by the subversive promise of personal computers.

Yes, I’m sure you’re surprised by that opinion. Not.

Some companies will find themselves trapped
Unfortunately, many legacy technology companies run the risk of allowing themselves to be locked into channel models and relationships that make it seriously difficult for them to put sales strategies for SaaS or managed services in place without undermining at least some of their legacy partners.

They certainly need to ensure that some partners still have an interest in selling traditional licenses or hardware widgets, because not all businesses can or will adopt an application delivered as a service. I believe the purists who believe every application or piece of infrastructure will be sold as a service are off base.

But the days when software companies could give reseller partners preferential treatment at the expense of encouraging agent models or those based on a totally different form of partner “compensation” are coming to an end. My belief is that the icky economy is only going to accelerate the clash of old world and new world technology solutions channels.

Why SaaS matters
Operational efficiency. Flexibility when it comes to financing and payment. Speed of deployment. Central access for a corporate workforce that is increasingly mobile. These are just a few of the things that make SaaS attractive, and they’re all factors that matter even more in a touch economic climate than one that is more forgiving.

Here’s why SaaS matters. Consider the case of Hasler, a manufacturer of mailing and shipping products represented by 150 independent dealers around the United States. On behalf of that dealer network Hasler has developed two custom CRM applications by working with Bluewolf, a SaaS integrator and leading partner for SaaS powerhouse salesforce.com. The applications creates a standard way of handling customer databases for these dealers, allowing them to more easily track data such as when customer leases are coming due, which is a great time for sales discussions to take place.

While Hasler won’t force its dealers to use or adopt the new applications and it certainly won’t host or interfere with the data being tracked, it believes more than half of its dealers will embrace the software (at their own cost) within the next 12 months.

Bob Ruby, senior director of sales strategy for Hasler, says its partners previously used a hodge podge of applications to manage these same tasks with the result that the simple process of acting on CRM information was highly inefficient. Hasler was able to negotiate a better price for the service with Bluewolf and salesforce.com because of its size, Ruby says.

While traditional applications were considered by Ruby’s team, the cost of that software, along with Hasler’s need to customize the salesforce.com interface for its own unique industry and its desire to create a secure environment for its dealers to manage the data made a SaaS application the only logical choice. “We needed a solution that was, above all, flexible,” he says.

Ironically, Hasler itself doesn’t even use salesforce.com yet, although Ruby says it plans to do so.

What’s a channel manager to do?
Here’s a link to a recent article I wrote for TechTarget about the broad issue of cloud computing and its likely impact on various channel business models. This is a bigger issue than just SaaS, of course, but many of the same philosophies apply.

In my mind, the biggest challenges for resellers with the desire to shift their business from one that relies on product margin to one predicated on the value of integration and on their trusted advisor status center on revenue modeling and sales force compensation. That’s why you see so many VARs create a separate business entity to handle their managed services or SaaS integration business. It’s too much trouble to manage together.

And if it’s tough for VARs to figure out the right financial modeling, I can only begin to guess how rough it is for traditional technology companies to recast their own balance sheets to reflect a sale that happens over time instead of all at once.

The pragmatist in me knows many technology vendors are cutting back their channel investment and program budgets for 2009 even as I write this blog, in anticipation of contracting sales for at least the next three quarters. But they cut investment in supporting the development of services partners and sales influencers at their own peril.

I can’t think of an investment more worthwhile than programs that incent business partners to migrate their models away from an unhealthy product margin dependence as quickly as possible. That also means reexamining how vendor sales teams are compensated, even if it means cutting back on traditional spiffs and promotions that exist only to support quickie product sales.

Ask yourself: Is your one company spending money to protect the past or is it investing in the future?

Got a cool SaaS or managed services program in place? Tell me about it by e-mailing hclancy@swotmg.com.